Showing posts with label Thinking. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Thinking. Show all posts

15 March 2026

Strategic Thinking - Weekly Update

Have been training on how to think.. here is overall progress....

 

Elite Think Tank Mastery Program

Systems Thinking Cognitive Training Report

Author: Lakshmi Narayanan Narasimhan
Program: Elite Think Tank Mastery
Training Focus: Systems Thinking • Strategic Reasoning • Structural Diagnosis


Program Overview

The Elite Think Tank Mastery Program is a long-term cognitive training initiative focused on developing deep expertise in systems thinking and strategic diagnosis.

The program trains the ability to understand complex systems through causal mechanisms and system archetypes.

Core analytical framework used throughout the training:

Events
  ↓
Causal Mechanisms
  ↓
System Archetypes
  ↓
System Behavior
  ↓
Strategic Intervention

The objective is to develop the ability to identify structural drivers behind system behavior, rather than reacting to isolated events.


Current Training Status

MetricValue
Total Drills Completed1755
Foundation Target2500
Completion≈71%
Average Accuracy≈98%

Progress Visualization

0        500       1000       1500       1755        2500
|--------|---------|----------|----------|-----------|
Start    Phase 1   Phase 2    Phase 3    Current     Foundation Complete

Remaining drills:

2500 - 1755 = 745 drills

Today's Training Summary

Drill Types Practiced

  • Archetype Recognition

  • Reverse Diagnosis

  • System Collapse Analysis

Drills Completed

20 drills

Accuracy

≈98%

The training session maintained a high accuracy level across multiple system diagnosis scenarios.


Drill Categories

Archetype Recognition

Identifying the system archetype based on a causal mechanism chain.

Example:

Growth
 → Coordination Complexity
 → Decision Bottleneck
 → Execution Slowdown

Archetype:

Limits to Growth

Reverse Diagnosis

Starting with observable system behavior and identifying the underlying structural causes.

Example:

Outcome
Industry margins declining

Diagnosis:

Competition
 → Price Reduction
 → Competitive Response
 → Price War

Archetype:

Escalation

System Collapse Analysis

Analyzing complex scenarios where multiple mechanisms interact.

Example:

Failure
 → Risk Aversion
 → Control Expansion
 → Decision Bottleneck
 → Innovation Decline

Archetypes:

  • Control Expansion

  • Limits to Growth


Archetype Coverage

The following system archetypes have been practiced extensively:

ArchetypeDescription
Limits to GrowthGrowth constrained by emerging bottlenecks
Success to the SuccessfulReinforcing advantage loops
Growth & UnderinvestmentCapacity expansion lagging demand
EscalationCompetitive response loops
Shifting the BurdenShort-term fixes replacing structural solutions
Control ExpansionBureaucratic response to risk
Tragedy of the CommonsShared resource overuse
Success Lock-inPast success creating structural inertia
Feature CreepContinuous feature additions causing complexity

These archetypes represent recurring structural patterns across organizations, markets, and systems.


Example System Diagnoses

Organizational Scaling Problem

Growth
 → Team Expansion
 → Coordination Complexity
 → Decision Bottleneck
 → Slower Product Releases

Archetype:

Limits to Growth

Platform Ecosystem Expansion

Users
 → Creators
 → Content
 → More Users

Archetype:

Success to the Successful

Infrastructure Congestion

Population Growth
 → Infrastructure Investment Lag
 → Private Vehicle Increase
 → Traffic Congestion

Archetype:

Growth & Underinvestment

Cognitive Development Timeline

Phase 1 (0–500)
Mechanism Recognition

Phase 2 (500–1000)
Basic Archetype Recognition

Phase 3 (1000–1500)
Advanced Archetype Diagnosis

Phase 4 (1500–1800)
Multi-Archetype System Reasoning

Phase 5 (1800–2200)
Strategic Leverage Thinking

Phase 6 (2200–2500)
Advanced System Diagnosis

Current stage:

Phase 4 – Multi-Archetype System Reasoning

Cognitive Capabilities Emerging

At approximately 1750 drills, the following abilities are becoming consistent:

• Long causal chains (6–10 mechanisms)
• Identification of primary and secondary archetypes
• Diagnosis of system collapse patterns
• Structural reasoning across domains

This indicates the transition from pattern recognition to system diagnosis.


Next Milestone

Next checkpoint:

1800 drills

Remaining:

≈45 drills

This milestone introduces the next training capability:

Leverage-Point Identification

Example:

Growth
 → Coordination Complexity
 → Decision Bottleneck

Strategic intervention:

Decentralize decision authority

Long-Term Training Objective

The ultimate goal of this training program is to develop the capability to diagnose complex systems across domains including:

• organizations
• technology platforms
• economic systems
• infrastructure networks
• innovation ecosystems

The conceptual framework developed through this program is referred to as:

Causal Systems Diagnostics

Future Training Areas

Upcoming areas of exploration include:

  • Strategic leverage-point analysis

  • Multi-archetype system interaction

  • System collapse patterns

  • System resilience design

  • Strategic ecosystem dynamics

These will form part of a larger systems thinking knowledge base.


Closing Note

Complex systems rarely fail due to isolated events.

They evolve due to structural mechanisms embedded within the system.

By systematically studying causal mechanisms and archetypes, it becomes possible to diagnose and anticipate system behavior with greater clarity.

This training program represents an ongoing effort to develop that capability.

 


26 December 2017

Paradox of Choices

Less is more and more is less

Why?

I often undergo this once in a year when I try to change my phone. For past few years, I have been using smartphones (Android) but buying them is a strenuous exercise. It heavily taxes me. In fact, i take approximately about a month to decide whether to buy a phone and another month thinking what phone/brand to buy. Given the rate at which that I change the phone for past few years, it makes sense to shortlist two or three phones and pick the right one. It is especially more tedious when you want to buy things online (because the website throws options at you that you can compare)

Aren't choices good? The answer is "yes" and "no". The choices are good as long as we are able to decide and they are bad when we hit the decision paralysis (making choices).

Certainly, the choices beyond certain point overwhelm us. Our brain thinks that it is analyzing the choices but fails to understand that the choices deceive us. The brain gets tired and as a result, we end up making not so good choices (bad) or do not take decisions at all (worse).

If you are from India and had taken your wife to get a saree, you would have experienced this. The female is known to make wise decisions when it comes to life but often indecisive to select a saree (so the number of choices is the culprit)

So, it is true if someone says "less is more" (when the choice is less, you act on those choices very quickly).

Tidbits - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Paradox_of_Choice

16 August 2017

Wired to be Weird?

Journey of you and me

    Image result for mind
  1. Human mind is fresh when born
  2. Few days after you are born, the folks around you condition you (smile is an outcome of happiness, boy doesn't cry, so do not cry, a girl should not do this)
  3. Because of extreme conditioning, you build your faith
  4. You associate yourself with others of similar faith (things are fine till this)
  5. You tend to believe that the person who you associated with is "good" because of what you experience with him (which is ok, but things start to go bad). Instead of you liking a quality or a task, you tend to like that person
  6. Assume that the person exhibit some unusual behavior
  7. Since you like that person, you are actually discounting the unusual behavior (which is not good) and if you like that person to extreme, you actually justify his behavior
And therefore - 
  1. We are weird and as the result, we regress
  2. We regress and feel bad, understand our hardware (brain - how it is wired) and try to change our software (thinking/awareness). We grow (a nice possibility)

25 February 2017

Abstraction - Events IN, Solutions OUT

Abstraction is a great tool for mankind. The history of human evolution has seen uncountable number of evidences on the usefulness of abstraction. Abstraction is to absorb important attributes and leaving out unimportant attributes. Very state that we are in is the fruit of our ability to abstract - Ideas.

Image result for abstraction problem solving
Ideas - what are ideas. Ideas are fruits of abstraction of events happening around us or impulse of information that happens elsewhere (which again an event to us). In problem solving domain, ideas are output of abstraction (elevated thinking) and inference (desirable response from higher plane of thinking). 

While most of us think creativity is for people who are brainy. But the truth is that the creativity is fruit of hard work, systematic way of abstracting the problem and connecting those events with our experience. Like anything, it is only the practice that makes it smart work. The first step towards solving problems is to understand a problem or rather find/recognize a problem, understanding it at higher plane and giving way for ideas to emerge. 

Abstraction is what it took us where we are and it is the only thing that is going to take us where we ought to go.

PS 1: This is hangover of reading programming languages pragmatics which i think is a wonderful book. I will be reading for next several months (so surely there are going to be numerous posts on that)

PS 2: I am posting after an year. I have to admit that i ran out of ideas and since i am reading a book i think i will get a lot more ideas

07 January 2016

Fallacy and Bias

Most of the times we think we are "sound" and better than others. We keep carrying this in our head - "if you take average score of intelligence, i am above average than most of the people". We fail to understand that all of us feel the same way. 

When you think you are better than your neighbor, your neighbor thinks he is better than you. If this is true, the average will be lower than individual scores. This clearly shows that we have fallacies and biases. The things we think are NOT what we think. Our concept of being neutral or unbiased is more biased towards us. This is a paradox. Ex: We often think that we are modest and in fact we "say" so - "i am modest".

Feel happy - everyone is wired that way. 

Our brain works and everyone's brain is wired for biases and fallacies. Our excellence lies in knowing these biases (making us counter productive) and putting checkpoints to bring some sense - an order from chaos. Only when we understand our biases and put some checkpoints, we will be making some sense.

31 December 2015

Be your own case study

Reading books gives knowledge. But mere knowledge does not guarantee behaviors. All behaviors do not yield experience. All experiences do not give wisdom.

But it all starts with being theoretical (reading books). Read books and "do" something with the learning. Be your own case study - conduct experiments and create positive feedback.

After definite amount of work, there comes a masterpiece - hidden gem inside you that gets polished with every effort you make.

My "rational" tells to my "emotional" self when i am not yet there.

27 December 2015

New Year Resolution - Does it make sense?

Retrospection, questions and answers
  1. Have you ever taken a resolution on new year eve? 
    • Mostly yes. I often take every year since i became professional. Sometimes i share it with others and sometimes i do not share with others reason being "fearing failure". It looks like the goals should not to be made public.
  2. Have you ever successfully able to keep up the commitment to yourself? 
    • Yes for initial days/weeks and then it fades away. After few months, i hardly remember the resolution unless someone remind me
  3. What is the motivation behind your resolution?
    • I want to lead a better life. I think everyone has every right to be better and be happier. When i take resolution, it always give me a fresh thought and a fresh start. I feel that i can erase all the past and give my life a fresh start. I understand that it need not be a new year. But then it is a nice way to start a year so that we can review it mid way through the year.
  4. How does it feel when you have given up resolution?
    • It feels very hard. Though i smile, i really takes a toll on my self-confidence. I feel like i am an excellent starter & planner but a poor finisher.
  5. What do you think is root cause of failing in resolution?
    • There is no single answer. It is lack of experience, lack of ability to split the goals into minor critical accomplishments, lack of prioritization, lack of ability to connect emotional with the goal (Elephant), lack of understanding of tiny improvements & small wins, lack of commitment.
  6. Is it still relevant?
    • Yes, i do think that i am going to have very few resolutions.
  7. How do you think that you will be different this year?
    1. I need to think a lot. 
    2. I should marry my long term goals to shorter term wins (Rider, Elephant). I should focus on one month at a time than a year (a lot of things can happen in a year but shorter periods are almost certain)
    3. Focus should be on Health, Happiness and Skill building than making money.
    4. Approach this more psychologically by forming habits rather than seeing this as end points. (For example losing 30 pounds should directly related to walking. Unless i form walking as a habit, i cannot lose 30 pounds.)
    5. Whatever it is, i should share my progress with others.

25 December 2015

Positive Illusion Bias - Why we are not what we think of?


Answer the following questions. Answers sound familiar?
  1. Have you seen anyone boasting about themselves? (yep, they are all around us)
  2. Have you ever boasted about yourself to someone and later felt that you actually overrated yourself? (sometimes, not mostly i am grounded)
If you answer "yes" to one of the questions, read further.

We overrate ourselves, often. On the positive things we rate ourselves above average and on the negative things we rate ourselves below average. Yes, we perceive ourselves to be better than most others around us.

If you are a manager, you had to do handle it quite often and more certainly once the yearly performance rating are over. People rate themselves above most of the people in the team on work/impact they created and how much less overhead these caused. While that may not be intentional, we need to understand what are the implications of doing that - Positive Illusion Bias. It does not stop at performance reviews and extends in all facets of life. It is how we are wired.

Positive Illusion has both positive and negative side effects. In a shorter terms, it seems to help relieve stress and be more self-confident. But over longer term, it has negative side effects when we overdo it (it could be sudden fall). Thinking that i will stand out from the pack often leads to less preparation which leads to wreckage as it gives false sense (Ex: My health is better than my friends, i can cram the exam since i m better grasping, i am more honest than most in the society, trying to predict the stock market thinking that i am an ace trader etc).

To Sum Up: Whether or not it is good - it is not the reality. It is one more reason to remain grounded and modest.

24 December 2015

Why we take "Poor Decisions"

I wrote a tiny post on good, bad and poor decisions (blunder).

Making a bad decision is understandable. But why do we make blunders. When we are in the capacity of making a good decisions, why are we converting them to poor decisions? Do we like shooting at our own foot? Of course, not.

Researchers say, we have two minds. Have you ever experienced the dilemma in your life? One of your minds say "i do not want eat another scoop of ice cream" and yet another mind finds excuses "i will take another scoop and compensate with additional workout". The next morning, one of the minds thinks that "i had ice cream yesterday and now i should get up from bed and go for a walk" and yet another mind says "it seems like it is cloudy out and it may rain". Another example is shopping. Buying things way more than our need and what we can afford. I am sure that each one of us would have took several poor decisions in life only to repent later.

Our brain has two minds. The truth is that one mind is rational and the another mind is emotional. Emotional brain is mighty and powerhouse. The Rational (animals don't have this) one is tiny and succumb when there is a tug of war with emotional. First we need to understand that emotional mind is capable of making "poor" decisions as the decisions are taken based on "what it likes" but not on "merit". But the rational part takes decisions as it names says "rationally".

Understanding that we have two minds and accepting that we take emotional decisions and constantly using "rational" side would help us make better decisions. Making better decisions is a habit. Unless anything forms as a habit, the results ought be inconsistent and unpredictable.

Bottom line: Practice to use rational side to make "right" decisions. It is a long term process.

21 December 2015

Good, Bad and Poor Decisions

(Not a) Rocket Science: Good Decisions Vs Bad Decisions Vs Poor Decisions

Good decisions - Well thought out and the decision seems to be correct

Bad decisions (there are limitations) - Not well thought out and the outcome is not so great. There are some shortcomings that are outside of your control. You do not have expertise to decide but the situation is such that you need to take decisions. You learn something new. It is failure.

Poor decisions (limiting oneself) - Not well thought out again and the outcome is not so great. But there is a difference here. You had all information at your disposal or you have access to get those information with little to no effort. You screwed it. This is NOT a failure. This is a blunder.

There is a hell a lot of difference between a failure and blunder.

A failure gives you confidence that you will do it after learning and a blunder gives an impression that you lack commitment.

15 December 2015

Followership

What a real leader would do in a firefighting?

There is a fire. The firemen are trying to put off the fire. What are they likely to do? Each one would do their job (which they are good at). Sometimes they give commands and most of the times they follow. They follow someone who is closer to the fire. They take directions. They ultimate goal is to put off fire.

If we are recovering from a disaster and working hard for a turnaround, "followership" is more important than "leading" (prescription). 

Followership gives us focus, disciple and confidence.

A leader is born when she follows. Followership is another form of Leadership

13 December 2015

Influences

*** Not a rocket science yet a rocket science ***

All the posts that i write here comes from the books i read, the people i meet, my observation on events around me and many other ways - Influences

When i read book, i read with an intention of getting something out of it. I am motivated to read it. The results are mostly conscious.

Events around me - Whether are or not i am motivated, get registered in my mind. It gets registered in my sub-conscious and manifests in some form at later point even if i do not heed. If i have awareness on what happening, i place a filter before the events. My orientation depends on the filter. How i store the information depends on the filter/awareness.

Everyone and everything around me gives me opportunity to learn more and be better and "Influences" my future decisions/reasoning.

12 December 2015

Help and Giving

Tamil Nadu floods - see it good and bad sides

Bad sides - Lives are lost, Losing basic amenities of life, Pushing people to migrate to different part of city, Psychological issues, Material losses.....

Good Side - You got to know you are not alone. People are with you. People helped people. People donated to People. Some gave part of their salary. Some gave everything they had. Some might borrowed from someone to give people.

For a common man. "Giving" is big thing. Giving without advertisement for vested interest is another big thing. It shows your deep care for others. "How much" you give is not important. There is no price tag for the help done in needy time.

This picture summarizes everything.



11 December 2015

Think, Learn, Unlearn

Think - How to think properly and how to improve thinking.

Learn - Learn right things and learn to learn thing faster

Unlearn - Unlearn things and move on

It is a cycle, that's how i can be a life long student.

Think - Learn - Unlearn - Think - Learn - Unlearn....................you die

08 December 2015

Weird Questions

Lots of energy is pumped into Chennai relief work and everyone of us see the impact that youths are creating in Chennai during the last week and this week. The students and professionals work tirelessly to arrest the hunger and to put the life to normalcy.
  1. Why do they commit themselves so selflessly?
  2. Why do they feel that they can listen someone's order in relief activity?
  3. Why do they give space to others to give their share of ideas?
  4. Why do they collaborate?
  5. Who instilled the vision? 
  6. How do they chase their dreams?
  7. While they are very tiny in the whole, how they get the feeling that their "tiny" things make whole?
While their bosses and teachers say quite opposite.

Vision - Purpose - Passion - Drive - Results - Impact Delivered


27 November 2015

Numbers don't define quality

How many people would read my posts and how many eye balls i catch? Should i write better?

How many people would buy my product? Should i have these features?

How many this and how many that? Doesn't it make sense to do only this since the number is low?

The problem with number is that it is quantitative. It is not qualitative.

Numbers don't define quality.

Quality precedes quantity

20 November 2015

Play your strength

I got the messages in Facebook. It summarizes what we should be doing - "play your strength" and "measure the performance when playing the strength"

How much we rely on the performance appraisal system (outsourcing our career) and how much we are ensuring that we are playing our strength (creating our future).






19 November 2015

Thinking

How much ever i try to think, i cannot think.

Despite that i continue to think that i can think well one day (hope is eternal, remote possibility but there is hope)

17 November 2015

Daily Improvements

Why we often fall short of our big goals? Let us take an example of acquiring a skill.

When we are building a new skill (swimming) it is very important to be consistent (go to pool everyday). Every day we keep making tiny improvements and if you put things in bigger time scale the tiny improvements become big (tiny drops make ocean). This is not a rocket science.

But why are we often failing to make "big" improvements. Because of our nature of failing to recognize the tiny improvements we often end up not making an effort for the tiny improvement. The improvement or the increase is tiny and we tend to equate the tiny to negligible (often of no value). We give up thinking that it is difficult or it is not worth trying (whatever it is - the end goal is "zero").

Secondly, the consistency seem to very easy as long as it is consistency (you hit the pool and swim). Because the amount of mental effort needed is less (it appears to be easy). But once the consistency is lost (stop going to pool for a couple of days), the mental effort to bring in consistency is highly difficult (no room for context switch and focus should be spot on). It is mentally tough.

13 November 2015

Issues with Instant Gratification

Do you prefer smaller short term gain over bigger longer term gain? Do you prefer to get instant "pay backs"?

I see few issues with instant gratification. 

  • Instant gratification focuses more "pay backs" rather than the "actual goal". When you focus on short term "temptation", sometimes the efforts are scattered, sometimes leads to failure to learn at boundaries, leads not to see a big picture.
  • Gratification is always tempting and i think that is why most of us want to cash it instantly. 
  • Since i have already cashed, i see that there is no need to put more focus on the goal - i consider that i have already accomplished
  • Hinders continuous learning
Only a very few people overcome the temptation and look beyond few days to few months to few years (deferred gratification). You can call it a virtue or maturity. It is very difficult to acquire. easy to say but very very hard to do.